Paula Badosa Gibert — Darya Kasatkina 2:1: match report and statistics
WTA. Beijing · 01.10.2026 05:30 · Finished
Compare teamsWho will win?
Votes: 0- Paula Badosa Gibert0%
- Draw0%
- Darya Kasatkina0%
Overview
Final score Paula Badosa Gibert 2:1 Darya Kasatkina, WTA. Beijing, 01.10.2026 05:30 (UTC). Paula Badosa Gibert took the victory.
Form of Paula Badosa Gibert in the last 6 matches: wins 4, draws 0, defeats 2. Form of Darya Kasatkina in the last 6 matches: wins 1, draws 0, defeats 5.
Head-to-head meetings: 8. Wins of Paula Badosa Gibert: 4, wins of Darya Kasatkina: 4, draws: 0. The last meeting on 02.09.2026 16:40 ended Darya Kasatkina 0:2 Paula Badosa Gibert.
More on the site: Paula Badosa Gibert statistics, Darya Kasatkina statistics, WTA. Beijing table.
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Score by periods
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | Σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paula Badosa Gibert | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
 Darya Kasatkina | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
Match statistics
- 2 Aces 3
- 9 Double faults 6
- 67% First serve 81%
- 56% (45/81)1st serve points won(46/86) 53%
- 38% (15/40)2nd serve points won(7/20) 35%
- 0% Break points saved 0%
- 47% (40/86)1st serve return points won(36/81) 44%
- 65% (13/20)2nd serve return points won(25/40) 63%
- 0% Break points converted 0%
- 50% (60/121)Service points won(53/106) 50%
- 50% (53/106)Return points won(61/121) 50%
- 50% (113/227)Total points won(114/227) 50%
- 7 Посл. 10 мячей 3
- 0 Match Points Saved 1
- 50% (8/16)Service games won(8/16) 50%
- 50% (8/16)Return games won(8/16) 50%
- 50% (16/32)Total games won(16/32) 50%
Game by game
- 1 : 0Lost serve15:0 30:0 40:0 BP
- Lost serve1 : 115:0 15:15 15:30 15:40 BP30:40 BP
- 1 : 20:15 0:30 15:30 30:30 30:40 40:40 40:A 40:40 40:A
- Lost serve1 : 315:0 15:15 15:30 15:40 BP30:40 BP
- 2 : 3Lost serve15:0 15:15 30:15 40:15 BP
- Lost serve2 : 40:15 0:30 0:40 BP
- 3 : 4Lost serve15:0 15:15 30:15 40:15 BP
- 4 : 415:0 15:15 30:15 40:15
- 5 : 4Lost serve15:0 15:15 30:15 30:30 40:30 BP
- 6 : 415:0 15:15 30:15 40:15 MP40:30 MP
Head-to-head
Paula Badosa GibertMatches played: 8
draws: 0
Darya KasatkinaPrevious matches: Paula Badosa Gibert
Previous matches: Darya Kasatkina
Match info
- Tournament
- Beijing
- Season
- 2026
- Referee
- Marija Cicak
WTA. Beijing
Match forecast and markets
- On serve the model gives Paula Badosa Gibert 58% of points and Darya Kasatkina 51% — adjusted for the opponent's return.
- Most likely score in sets is 2:0 (53%), then 2:1 (29%).
- About 22.8 games expected; over 21.5 — 51%.
| Market | history | history | Model | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paula Badosa Gibert wins | 67%6/9 | 60%6/10 | 82% | 1.23 |
| Darya Kasatkina wins | 33%3/9 | 40%4/10 | 18% | 5.41 |
| Paula Badosa Gibert wins 1st set | 56%5/9 | 90%9/10 | 73% | 1.38 |
| Deciding set | 22%2/9 | 60%6/10 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Tiebreak in match | 22%2/9 | 40%4/10 | 25% | 4.03 |
| Score in sets | ||||
| 2:0 | 56%5/9 | 40%4/10 | 53% | 1.90 |
| 2:1 | 11%1/9 | 20%2/10 | 29% | 3.46 |
| 1:2 | 11%1/9 | 40%4/10 | 11% | 9.14 |
| 0:2 | 22%2/9 | 0%0/10 | 8% | 13.26 |
Model: serve and return points of each player in recent matches (9 and 10) → game → set → match. History — share of each player's matches where the market came in.
Players' style of play
Paula Badosa Gibertmatches: 9
Strengths
- Points won on 1st serve 68% (avg 62%)Strong
- Service games held 71% (avg 63%)Strong
- Return games won 43% (avg 37%)Strong
- Closing out after winning 1st set 5/5Strong
Weaknesses
- First serve in 57% (avg 60%)Weak
- Tiebreaks 1/3Weak
- Aces per match
- 2.2
- Double faults per match
- 6.7
- First serve in
- 57%
- Service games held
- 71%
- Return games won
- 43%
Darya Kasatkinamatches: 10
Strengths
- First serve in 63% (avg 60%)Strong
- Deciding sets 4/6Strong
- Comebacks after losing 1st set 4/9Strong
Weaknesses
- Double faults per match 8.7 (avg 6.4)Weak
- Points won on 2nd serve 40% (avg 45%)Weak
- Tiebreaks 1/4Weak
- Aces per match
- 2.4
- Double faults per match
- 8.7
- First serve in
- 63%
- Service games held
- 59%
- Return games won
- 37%
What to expect
- Darya Kasatkina makes many double faults — 8.7 per matchLikely
Compared with the average of all players in these matches (both players and their opponents). Recent 10 matches.
Trends
- 4 defeats in a row100%
- Matches without a deciding set: 7 of 978%
- Under 23.5 games in 7 of 9 matches78%
Based on recent matches: home team — 9, away team — 10
Win probability
Points won on serve: 53% Points won on serve: 54%Before the match: 43%Markov model: each player's chance to win a point on serve → game → set → match. Bars below show how much each point mattered.