Oss — Helmond Sport 3:1: match report and statistics

• 2.7 Expected goals (xG) 1.42
• 46% Possession 54%
• 14 Total shots 17
• 5 Shots on target 6
• 5 Big Chances 2
• 6 Corners 7
• 80 (311/391)Assists(379/448) 85
• 2 Yellow cards 3
• 2.52 xG on target (xGOT) 1.01
• 5 Shots off target 6
• 4 Shots blocked 5
• 10 Shots from inside the penalty area 10
• 4 Shots from outside the penalty area 7
• 1 Hit the woodwork 0
• 1 Headed goals 0
• 23 Touches in opposition box 17
• 1 Accurate through passes 0
• 2 Offsides 3
• 14 Free kicks 17
• 40 (29/72)Long Balls(22/44) 50
• 64 (69/107)Passes in final third(78/110) 71
• 15 (2/13)Crosses(7/25) 28
• 1.73 Expected assists (xA) 1.72
• 17 Throw-ins 18
• 17 Fouls 14
• 63 (10/16)Tackles(3/9) 33
• 47 Duels won 48
• 26 Clearances 19
• 9 Steals 12
• 0 Errors leading to shot 0
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 4 Saves 2
• 1.01 xGOT faced 2.52
• 0.01 Goals prevented -0.48
• 9 Goal kicks 7

Tournament

Higher League

Attendance

1,936

Referee

Andy Wolff

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Heracles Almelo	13	10	2	1	39:14	+25	32	WDWWD
2	VVV-Venlo	13	9	1	3	36:21	+15	28	WWDWW
3	Almere City	13	8	1	4	27:13	+14	25	WLLWW
4	Roda JC Kerkrade	13	7	4	2	17:12	+5	25	WWWDL
5	Emmen	13	8	1	4	26:24	+2	25	LWWWD
6	NAC Breda	13	7	3	3	25:20	+5	24	WDWWD
7	Volendam	13	6	1	6	30:22	+8	19	LWDWL
8	Den Bosch	13	5	3	5	23:21	+2	18	WDWWD
9	Vitesse	13	5	3	5	17:18	-1	18	DLWLD
10	AZ Alkmaar II	13	5	2	6	32:28	+4	17	LWDLW
11	MVV Maastricht	13	5	2	6	17:29	-12	17	LDLLL
12	Waalwijk	13	3	7	3	22:19	+3	16	LDDLD
13	PSV Eindhoven II	13	4	4	5	17:21	-4	16	LWLDL
14	De Graafschap	13	4	3	6	17:27	-10	15	WDLWD
15	Oss	13	4	1	8	19:22	-3	13	LDLWW
16	AFC Ajax II	13	3	4	6	19:30	-11	13	DDWLD
17	Helmond Sport	13	3	3	7	23:28	-5	12	WLLLD
18	Eindhoven	13	3	2	8	18:28	-10	11	LLLLD
19	Dordrecht	13	3	2	8	18:34	-16	11	LLWLD
20	Utrecht II	13	3	1	9	22:33	-11	10	WLLLL

• Promotion - Jupiler League
• Promotion - Higher League (Promotion)

• The model expects 3.38 goals: 2.38 for Oss and 1 for Helmond Sport.
• Most likely score is 2–0 (10%), followed by 2–1 (10%).
• Corners: about 10 (5 — 5).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 16-30: 6 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.75, 2nd — 1.63.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	97%	1.04
Over 1.5	100%	100%	85%	1.18
Over 2.5	100%	75%	66%	1.53
Over 3.5	25%	25%	44%	2.29
Over 4.5	25%	25%	25%	3.98

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (4). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Oss Helmond Sport

• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• First-half goal in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 9.5 corners in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 10.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Ossmatches: 4 · 4Helmond Sport

3.5Avg match total3.3

100%4/4Over 0.5100%4/4

0%0/4Under 0.50%0/4

100%4/4Over 1.5100%4/4

0%0/4Under 1.50%0/4

100%4/4Over 2.575%3/4

0%0/4Under 2.525%1/4

25%1/4Over 3.525%1/4

75%3/4Under 3.575%3/4

25%1/4Over 4.525%1/4

75%3/4Under 4.575%3/4

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

OssHelmond Sport

75%3/4Scores first25%1/4

67%2/3…and wins0%0/1

0%0/3…and draws0%0/1

33%1/3…and loses100%1/1

67%2/3…and then concedes100%1/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Oss opened the scoring in 75% of matches.
• • Oss avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.
• • Helmond Sport opened the scoring in 25% of matches.
• • Helmond Sport avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Oss				Helmond Sport
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	0	50%	1–15	50%	0	3
2	1	75%	16–30	50%	2	1
1	0	25%	31–45	25%	1	1
2	0	25%	46–60	75%	1	2
1	1	50%	61–75	25%	0	1
2	2	100%	76–90	25%	0	1
1	0	25%	37–HT	25%	0	1
1	2	75%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Oss scores most in 1–15: 2 of 10 goals (20%).
• • Oss concedes most in 76–90: 2 of 4 conceded.
• • Oss scores 30% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Helmond Sport scores most in 16–30: 2 of 4 goals (50%).
• • Helmond Sport concedes most in 1–15: 3 of 9 conceded.
• • Helmond Sport scores 0% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

OssHelmond Sport

3.5Corners won, avg3.3

6.8Corners conceded, avg6.5

10.3Match corners, avg9.8

1.75Corners in 1st half, avg1.75

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Ossper matchHelmond Sport

1.62xG for0.92

1.25xG against1.76

10.8Shots8.8

20.8Shots against15.0

5.0Shots on target3.0

5.3On target against5.5

23%Conversion11%

4.3Shots per goal8.8

14.5Fouls14.5

3.0Offsides1.0

• • Oss scores 0.88 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Oss concedes 0.25 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Helmond Sport scores 0.08 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Helmond Sport concedes 0.49 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 1.83 goals per match on average.