Middlesbrough — Wrexham: statistics, head-to-head and preview

Tournament

England. Championship

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Coventry City	46	28	11	7	97:45	+52	95	WWWDD
2	Ipswich Town	46	23	15	8	80:47	+33	84	WDDWD
3	Millwall	46	24	11	11	64:49	+15	83	WDWWD
4	Southampton	46	22	14	10	82:56	+26	80	WDDWW
5	Middlesbrough	46	22	14	10	72:47	+25	80	DWWDL
6	Hull City	46	21	10	15	70:66	+4	73	WLDDL
7	Wrexham	46	19	14	13	69:65	+4	71	DLWWL
8	Derby County	46	20	9	17	67:59	+8	69	LWLWL
9	Norwich City	46	19	8	19	63:56	+7	65	LDWWL
10	Birmingham City	46	17	13	16	57:56	+1	64	DWWDW
11	Swansea City	46	18	10	18	57:59	-2	64	WDWLW
12	Bristol City	46	17	11	18	59:59	0	62	WLDLD
13	Sheffield United	46	18	6	22	66:66	0	60	WLLWW
14	Preston North End	46	15	15	16	55:62	-7	60	LWLLW
15	Queens Park Rangers	46	16	10	20	61:73	-12	58	LLLLD
16	Watford	46	14	15	17	53:65	-12	57	LLLLL
17	Stoke City	46	15	10	21	51:56	-5	55	LLLLD
18	Portsmouth	46	14	13	19	49:64	-15	55	DWLWW
19	Charlton Athletic	46	13	14	19	44:58	-14	53	LWLDL
20	Blackburn Rovers	46	13	13	20	42:56	-14	52	LWDLD
21	West Bromwich Albion	46	13	14	19	48:58	-10	51	LDWWD
22	Oxford United	46	11	14	21	45:59	-14	47	LWLLW
23	Leicester City	46	12	16	18	58:68	-10	46	WDDLL
24	Sheffield Wednesday	46	2	12	32	29:89	-60	0	WLLDD

• Promotion - Premier League
• Promotion - Championship (Play-off: Round of 4)
• Relegation - First League

• The model expects 2.3 goals: 1.27 for Middlesbrough and 1.04 for Wrexham.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (13%).
• Corners: about 9.2 (4.8 — 4.4).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 46-60: 9 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 0.62, 2nd — 1.69.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	80%	100%	90%	1.11
Over 1.5	40%	83%	67%	1.49
Over 2.5	40%	50%	40%	2.48
Over 3.5	0%	33%	20%	4.98
Over 4.5	0%	33%	8%	11.94

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (5), away team away (6). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Middlesbrough Wrexham

• Under 2.5 in 7 matches in a row100%
• Won 6 of 6 matches after scoring first100%
• Under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Unbeaten in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 8.5 corners in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Scored under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Middlesbroughmatches: 5 · 6Wrexham

1.6Avg match total3.0

80%4/5Over 0.5100%6/6

20%1/5Under 0.50%0/6

40%2/5Over 1.583%5/6

60%3/5Under 1.517%1/6

40%2/5Over 2.550%3/6

60%3/5Under 2.550%3/6

0%0/5Over 3.533%2/6

100%5/5Under 3.567%4/6

0%0/5Over 4.533%2/6

100%5/5Under 4.567%4/6

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

MiddlesbroughWrexham

100%4/4Scores first33%2/6

100%4/4…and wins50%1/2

0%0/4…and draws0%0/2

0%0/4…and loses50%1/2

50%2/4…and then concedes50%1/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Middlesbrough opened the scoring in 100% of matches.
• • Wrexham opened the scoring in 33% of matches.
• • Wrexham avoided defeat after conceding first in 75% of such matches.

Middlesbrough				Wrexham
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	0	0%	1–15	0%	0	0
1	0	20%	16–30	17%	1	0
1	0	20%	31–45	67%	0	4
2	0	40%	46–60	50%	7	0
2	0	40%	61–75	0%	0	0
0	2	40%	76–90	83%	2	4
1	0	20%	37–HT	33%	0	2
0	1	20%	87–FT	67%	1	4

• • Middlesbrough scores most in 46–60: 2 of 6 goals (33%).
• • Middlesbrough concedes most in 76–90: 2 of 2 conceded.
• • Middlesbrough scores 33% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Wrexham scores most in 46–60: 7 of 10 goals (70%).
• • Wrexham concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 8 conceded.
• • Wrexham scores 20% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

MiddlesbroughWrexham

4.8Corners won, avg2.83

6.0Corners conceded, avg4.8

10.8Match corners, avg7.7

1.8Corners in 1st half, avg1.33

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Middlesbroughper matchWrexham

1.16xG for1.09

1.09xG against2.07

11.4Shots8.7

12.2Shots against17.3

4.4Shots on target4.2

2.8On target against4.3

11%Conversion19%

9.5Shots per goal5.2

8.6Fouls9.3

0.6Offsides1.5

• • Middlesbrough scores 0.04 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Middlesbrough concedes 0.69 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Wrexham scores 0.58 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Wrexham concedes 0.74 per match fewer than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.