Levski Sofia — CSKA Sofia 2:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Bulgaria. First League

Season

2012/2013

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Ludogorets 1945	30	22	6	2	58:13	+45	72	WWLWW
2	Levski Sofia	30	22	5	3	59:20	+39	71	DWWWW
3	CSKA Sofia	30	19	6	5	54:20	+34	63	LWWWW
4	Botev Plovdiv	30	18	6	6	51:21	+30	60	WLWWD
5	Litex Lovech	30	15	5	10	56:24	+32	50	DLWLL
6	Chernomorets Burgas	30	14	5	11	32:29	+3	47	DLWWW
7	Beroe Stara Zagora	30	13	6	11	36:38	-2	45	WWLWD
8	Slavia Sofia	30	12	6	12	40:35	+5	42	DWWLL
9	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	30	10	9	11	37:34	+3	39	LLLWD
10	Cherno More Varna	30	9	8	13	33:39	-6	35	DWWLW
11	Pirin Gotse Delchev	30	10	4	16	27:57	-30	34	WLLWL
12	Lokomotiv Sofia	30	7	10	13	27:38	-11	31	WWLLD
13	Botev Vratsa	30	8	7	15	23:51	-28	31	DWLLW
14	Minyor Pernik	30	5	5	20	20:49	-29	20	LLLLL
15	Montana	30	4	4	22	27:57	-30	16	LLWLL
16	Etar	30	4	4	22	20:75	-55	16	LLLLL

• Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
• Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
• Relegation - Division 2

• The model expects 2.53 goals: 1.7 for Levski Sofia and 0.83 for CSKA Sofia.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (14%), followed by 2–0 (12%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 61-75: 7 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.08, 2nd — 1.45.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	92%	1.09
Over 1.5	80%	50%	72%	1.39
Over 2.5	60%	25%	46%	2.16
Over 3.5	40%	25%	25%	4.04
Over 4.5	0%	25%	11%	8.91

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (5), away team away (4). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Levski Sofia CSKA Sofia

• Unbeaten in 8 matches100%
• Scored in 8 matches in a row100%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 7 matches100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 7 of 8 matches88%
• Won 7 of 8 matches88%
• Scored first in 7 of 8 matches88%
• Over 2.5 cards in 7 of 8 matches88%
• Won 6 of 7 matches after scoring first86%
• Over 3.5 cards in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Scored over 1.5 in 6 of 8 matches75%
• First-half goal in 6 of 8 matches75%

Based on recent matches: home team — 8, away team — 7

Levski Sofiamatches: 5 · 4CSKA Sofia

2.8Avg match total2.25

100%5/5Over 0.5100%4/4

0%0/5Under 0.50%0/4

80%4/5Over 1.550%2/4

20%1/5Under 1.550%2/4

60%3/5Over 2.525%1/4

40%2/5Under 2.575%3/4

40%2/5Over 3.525%1/4

60%3/5Under 3.575%3/4

0%0/5Over 4.525%1/4

100%5/5Under 4.575%3/4

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Levski SofiaCSKA Sofia

100%5/5Scores first25%1/4

100%5/5…and wins0%0/1

0%0/5…and draws100%1/1

0%0/5…and loses0%0/1

40%2/5…and then concedes100%1/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Levski Sofia opened the scoring in 100% of matches.
• • CSKA Sofia opened the scoring in 25% of matches.
• • CSKA Sofia avoided defeat after conceding first in 33% of such matches.

Levski Sofia				CSKA Sofia
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
3	0	40%	1–15	0%	0	0
2	0	40%	16–30	50%	2	1
1	1	40%	31–45	0%	0	0
1	0	20%	46–60	25%	2	0
3	1	80%	61–75	75%	1	2
2	0	40%	76–90	25%	0	1
1	1	40%	37–HT	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	87–FT	25%	0	1

• • Levski Sofia scores most in 1–15: 3 of 12 goals (25%).
• • Levski Sofia concedes most in 31–45: 1 of 2 conceded.
• • Levski Sofia scores 42% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • CSKA Sofia scores most in 16–30: 2 of 5 goals (40%).
• • CSKA Sofia concedes most in 61–75: 2 of 4 conceded.
• • CSKA Sofia scores 20% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2 goals per match on average.