Levski Sofia — CSKA Sofia 2:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Bulgaria. First League

Season

2012/2013

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Ludogorets 1945	30	22	6	2	58:13	+45	72	WWLWW
2	Levski Sofia	30	22	5	3	59:20	+39	71	DWWWW
3	CSKA Sofia	30	19	6	5	54:20	+34	63	LWWWW
4	Botev Plovdiv	30	18	6	6	51:21	+30	60	WLWWD
5	Litex Lovech	30	15	5	10	56:24	+32	50	DLWLL
6	Chernomorets Burgas	30	14	5	11	32:29	+3	47	DLWWW
7	Beroe Stara Zagora	30	13	6	11	36:38	-2	45	WWLWD
8	Slavia Sofia	30	12	6	12	40:35	+5	42	DWWLL
9	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	30	10	9	11	37:34	+3	39	LLLWD
10	Cherno More Varna	30	9	8	13	33:39	-6	35	DWWLW
11	Pirin Gotse Delchev	30	10	4	16	27:57	-30	34	WLLWL
12	Lokomotiv Sofia	30	7	10	13	27:38	-11	31	WWLLD
13	Botev Vratsa	30	8	7	15	23:51	-28	31	DWLLW
14	Minyor Pernik	30	5	5	20	20:49	-29	20	LLLLL
15	Montana	30	4	4	22	27:57	-30	16	LLWLL
16	Etar	30	4	4	22	20:75	-55	16	LLLLL

• Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
• Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
• Relegation - Division 2

• The model expects 3.05 goals: 1.65 for Levski Sofia and 1.4 for CSKA Sofia.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (11%), followed by 2–1 (9%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 16-30: 12 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.45, 2nd — 1.6.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	90%	90%	95%	1.05
Over 1.5	90%	80%	81%	1.24
Over 2.5	60%	40%	59%	1.70
Over 3.5	30%	40%	36%	2.75
Over 4.5	10%	30%	19%	5.18

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Levski Sofia CSKA Sofia

• Unbeaten in 7 matches100%
• Unbeaten in 6 matches100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• First-half goal in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 3.5 cards in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored first in 8 of 9 matches89%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Levski Sofiamatches: 10 · 10CSKA Sofia

3.1Avg match total3.0

90%9/10Over 0.590%9/10

10%1/10Under 0.510%1/10

90%9/10Over 1.580%8/10

10%1/10Under 1.520%2/10

60%6/10Over 2.540%4/10

40%4/10Under 2.560%6/10

30%3/10Over 3.540%4/10

70%7/10Under 3.560%6/10

10%1/10Over 4.530%3/10

90%9/10Under 4.570%7/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Levski SofiaCSKA Sofia

100%9/9Scores first67%6/9

100%9/9…and wins83%5/6

0%0/9…and draws17%1/6

0%0/9…and loses0%0/6

56%5/9…and then concedes33%2/6

First to concede…

Overall

• • Levski Sofia opened the scoring in 100% of matches.
• • CSKA Sofia opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • CSKA Sofia avoided defeat after conceding first in 67% of such matches.

Levski Sofia				CSKA Sofia
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
5	0	40%	1–15	20%	2	1
5	0	40%	16–30	50%	6	1
4	1	40%	31–45	40%	2	2
4	2	40%	46–60	10%	2	0
4	1	50%	61–75	60%	4	3
4	1	40%	76–90	50%	7	0
2	1	30%	37–HT	10%	0	1
1	0	10%	87–FT	30%	3	0

• • Levski Sofia scores most in 1–15: 5 of 26 goals (19%).
• • Levski Sofia concedes most in 46–60: 2 of 5 conceded.
• • Levski Sofia scores 31% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • CSKA Sofia scores most in 76–90: 7 of 23 goals (30%).
• • CSKA Sofia concedes most in 61–75: 3 of 7 conceded.
• • CSKA Sofia scores 48% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2 goals per match on average.